NFLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFLX - NetFlix Inc
$98.66
3.11 (3.25%)
▲
5d:
+5.72%
30d:
+0.0%
90d:
+5.23%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
13d
Smart Money Accumulation
NFLX is down 4.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $100 2026-05-15 with 64,519 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$174.85
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.57
9.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFLX is currently trading at $98.66, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.45 to $98.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.7) is in line with its historical norms (25.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $97.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.43 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $97.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.43 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$87.45 -
$98.93
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($113.43)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$87.45 -
$98.93
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.69
Resistance Level
$97.96
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.67
Wall Street Target
$113.43
(+15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.7%
Profit Margin
24.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
25.7 vs 25.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.96
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$99.25
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$99.55
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$98.87
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.7, Growth: 21.8%)
$178.46
(+81%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 21.8%)
$142.98
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 21.8%)
$121.53
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.53
Bull Case
$153.30
(+64%)
Analyst growth 51.8%, PE expands to 39.9
Base Case
$139.36
(+49%)
Market implied 51.8%, PE stable at 36.3
Bear Case
$62.44
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Spencer Adam Neumann
SELL
28630 shares
2026-03-02
Reed Hastings
SELL
410550 shares
2026-03-02
Spencer Adam Neumann
SELL
57260 shares
2026-02-27
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NFLX price and gamma walls.
