NFLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFLX - NetFlix Inc
$93.29
-0.14 (-0.15%)
▼
5d:
-0.1%
30d:
-3.07%
90d:
-1.25%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
16d
Smart Money Accumulation
NFLX is down 4.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $100 2026-05-15 with 64,519 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$175.85
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$109.19
14.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFLX is currently trading at $93.29, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.04 to $98.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.3) is in line with its historical norms (25.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $90.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.21 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $90.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.21 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$83.04 -
$98.39
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($113.21)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$83.04 -
$98.39
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.69
Resistance Level
$96.34
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.33
Wall Street Target
$113.21
(+21.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.7%
Profit Margin
24.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.3 vs 25.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.94
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$90.46
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$89.02
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→26)
$93.29
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.3, Growth: 22.1%)
$169.92
(+82%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 22.1%)
$156.44
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 22.1%)
$132.97
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.53
Bull Case
$153.30
(+64%)
Analyst growth 51.8%, PE expands to 39.9
Base Case
$139.36
(+49%)
Market implied 51.8%, PE stable at 36.3
Bear Case
$62.44
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.3 to 25.5
Stabilization Target:
$97.92
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Spencer Adam Neumann
SELL
28630 shares
2026-03-02
Reed Hastings
SELL
410550 shares
2026-03-02
Spencer Adam Neumann
SELL
57260 shares
2026-02-27
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NFLX price and gamma walls.
