NFLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFLX - NetFlix Inc
$83.49
0.33 (0.40%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
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55 traders called NFLX this week
88% bullish • 10 bearish
88% bullish • 10 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NFLX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NFLX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$175.03
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.68
23.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFLX is currently trading at $83.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.68 to $92.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.8) compared to its historical average (28.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NFLX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.84 (+34.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NFLX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.84 (+34.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$85.68 -
$92.77
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NFLX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.5% below Wall St target ($111.84)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$85.68 -
$92.77
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.95
Resistance Level
$89.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.80
Wall Street Target
$111.84
(+34.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.7%
Profit Margin
24.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.8 vs 28.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.34
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$70.08
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$64.33
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→28)
$83.21
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 22.2%)
$155.19
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.2%)
$151.74
(+83%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 22.2%)
$128.98
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.53
Bull Case
$140.36
(+68%)
Analyst growth 50.8%, PE expands to 36.8
Base Case
$127.60
(+53%)
Market implied 50.8%, PE stable at 33.5
Bear Case
$57.56
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.8 to 28.2
Stabilization Target:
$107.55
(+29.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Spencer Adam Neumann
SELL
2600 shares
2025-10-01
Reed Hastings
SELL
42176 shares
2025-10-01
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
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