NGVT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGVT - Ingevity Corporation
$67.58
-3.79 (-5.31%)
▼
5d:
-10.64%
30d:
-8.35%
90d:
-11.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NGVT is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NGVT is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$119.10
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.95
8.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGVT is currently trading at $67.58, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.99 to $76.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 199.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGVT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.50 (+26.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGVT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.50 (+26.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$71.99 -
$76.48
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.5% below Wall St target ($85.50)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.6% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.99 -
$76.48
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.28
Resistance Level
$79.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.74
Wall Street Target
$85.50
(+26.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
199.0%
Profit Margin
-10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 12.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.76
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$63.98
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$62.25
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$67.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 16.7%)
$202.04
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 16.7%)
$107.50
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 16.7%)
$91.38
(+35%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.7 to 12.7
Stabilization Target:
$73.09
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 6:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGVT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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