NMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMR - Nomura Holdings, Inc
$9.06
0.08 (0.89%)
▲
5d:
+3.07%
30d:
+8.5%
90d:
+11.17%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.99
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMR is currently trading at $9.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.29 to $8.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.20 (+12.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.20 (+12.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.29 -
$8.94
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($10.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.29 -
$8.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.89
Resistance Level
$8.87
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.15
Wall Street Target
$10.20
(+12.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Profit Margin
16.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.30
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$9.54
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$9.79
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.02
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -10.7%)
$11.84
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: -10.7%)
$6.60
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: -10.7%)
$5.61
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.74
Bull Case
$9.95
(+10%)
Analyst growth 0.7%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$9.05
(0%)
Market implied 0.7%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$6.11
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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