NMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMR - Nomura Holdings, Inc
$8.08
-0.01 (-0.12%)
▼
5d:
+2.28%
30d:
-6.81%
90d:
-13.02%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NMR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NMR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.99
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMR is currently trading at $8.08, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.87 to $8.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.35 (+15.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.35 (+15.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$7.87 -
$8.46
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($9.35)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.87 -
$8.46
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.71
Resistance Level
$8.21
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.84
Wall Street Target
$9.35
(+15.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
16.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.00
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$7.92
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$7.84
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$8.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -10.7%)
$11.98
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: -10.7%)
$5.89
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: -10.7%)
$5.01
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.76
Bull Case
$8.75
(+8%)
Analyst growth -1.9%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$7.96
(-2%)
Market implied -1.9%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$5.51
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$8.35
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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