NOAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOAH - Noah Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing five (5) Ordinary shares)
$10.49
0.09 (0.87%)
▲
5d:
-1.22%
30d:
+2.74%
90d:
-13.66%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 27, 2026
8d
Get Alerted When NOAH Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOAH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOAH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.28
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.87
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOAH is currently trading at $10.49, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.12 to $10.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.0) is in line with its historical norms (1.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.46 (+29.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.46 (+29.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.12 -
$10.69
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.4% below Wall St target ($13.46)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.12 -
$10.69
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.40
Resistance Level
$11.05
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.98
Wall Street Target
$13.46
(+29.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-88.2%
Profit Margin
21.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.0 vs 1.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.28
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$10.15
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$10.03
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$10.20
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.4%)
$297.44
(+2760%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.0, Growth: 8.4%)
$13.25
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.8, Growth: 8.4%)
$11.27
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.17
Bull Case
$22.94
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$20.86
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$7.09
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.0 to 1.0
Stabilization Target:
$10.57
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:32 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NOAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Asset Management Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Asset Management by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
KKR
KKR & Co. Inc. |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$124 | 60 HOLD |
|
BLK
BlackRock Inc |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$1254 | 68 BUY |
|
APO
Apollo Global Management… |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$150 | 59 HOLD |
|
HASI
Hannon Armstrong Sustain… |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$49 | 59 HOLD |
|
ARCC
Ares Capital Corporation |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$21 | 59 HOLD |