NP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NP - Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
$28.00
0.54 (1.97%)
▲
5d:
-6.42%
30d:
+4.87%
90d:
+48.23%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.10
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NP is currently trading at $28.00, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.15 to $28.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 42.7) is in line with its historical norms (44.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $24.01, while resistance sits at $30.73.
Market Sentiment: NP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.55 (+11.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $24.01, while resistance sits at $30.73.
Market Sentiment: NP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.55 (+11.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$25.15 -
$28.52
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($30.55)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.15 -
$28.52
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.01
Resistance Level
$30.73
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.69
Wall Street Target
$30.55
(+11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Profit Margin
20.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
42.7 vs 44.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.99
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$26.53
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$26.08
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 43→45)
$27.43
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.7, Growth: 19.9%)
$47.37
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 19.9%)
$24.46
(-11%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 19.9%)
$20.79
(-24%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 42.7 to 44.9
Stabilization Target:
$28.88
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 4:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Trevor R Burgess
BUY
50000 shares
2026-03-13
Michael Warren Vostrizan…
BUY
23000 shares
2026-02-20
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