NPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPK - National Presto Industries, Inc.
$137.50
-1.78 (-1.27%)
▼
5d:
-3.5%
30d:
-2.3%
90d:
+10.46%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NPK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NPK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.15
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $137.50, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $137.49 to $143.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 160.1) compared to its historical average (145.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $122.91, while resistance sits at $145.22.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $122.91, while resistance sits at $145.22.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$137.49 -
$143.57
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 86.4% above Wall St target ($18.93)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.3% growth with 21.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$137.49 -
$143.57
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$122.91
Resistance Level
$145.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
160.08
Wall Street Target
$18.93
(-86.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.8%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
160.1 vs 145.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$143.87
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$148.61
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$153.52
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 160→145)
PE COMPRESSION
$139.25
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 160.1, Growth: 17.6%)
$226.32
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 17.6%)
$31.16
(-78%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 17.6%)
$26.49
(-81%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 29.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.63
Bull Case
$76.06
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 32.9
Base Case
$69.14
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 29.9
Bear Case
$94.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 3:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Randy F Lieble
SELL
2417 shares
2026-03-11
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