NPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPK - National Presto Industries, Inc.
$123.21
-0.15 (-0.12%)
▼
5d:
-0.41%
30d:
-4.0%
90d:
-13.17%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NPK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NPK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.15
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $123.21, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $125.38 to $131.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 141.6) is in line with its historical norms (146.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $121.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NPK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $121.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NPK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$125.38 -
$131.26
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 84.6% above Wall St target ($18.93)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$125.38 -
$131.26
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$121.57
Resistance Level
$131.89
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
141.62
Wall Street Target
$18.93
(-84.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.2%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
141.6 vs 146.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$121.85
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$120.51
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$119.19
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 142→146)
$123.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 141.6, Growth: 17.6%)
$200.22
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.6%)
$30.79
(-75%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.6%)
$26.17
(-79%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 27.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.49
Bull Case
$67.85
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 30.2
Base Case
$61.68
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 27.5
Bear Case
$83.88
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 141.6 to 146.3
Stabilization Target:
$127.28
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:09 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Randy F Lieble
SELL
2417 shares
2026-03-11
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