OBDC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBDC - Blue Owl Capital Corporation
$11.31
-0.05 (-0.44%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.58%
30d:
+3.86%
90d:
-6.3%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: OBDC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: OBDC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.03
Based on 0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBDC is currently trading at $11.31, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.88 to $11.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OBDC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.79 (+21.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OBDC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.79 (+21.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$10.88 -
$11.50
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($13.79)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.88 -
$11.50
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.08
Resistance Level
$11.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.48
Wall Street Target
$13.79
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.9%
Profit Margin
33.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.28
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$11.20
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$11.12
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â9)
$11.41
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: -2.7%)
$25.43
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: -2.7%)
$10.46
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: -2.7%)
$8.89
(-22%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.24
Bull Case
$13.30
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.1%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$12.09
(+6%)
Market implied 8.1%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$7.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 8.7
Stabilization Target:
$11.66
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 11:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Neena Reddy
BUY
7890 shares
2025-11-26
Craig Packer
BUY
83200 shares
2025-11-18
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