OLLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OLLI - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$81.07
2.58 (3.28%)
▲
5d:
+7.04%
30d:
-14.51%
90d:
-27.45%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 02, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OLLI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -10.2% annual earnings decline despite 26% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OLLI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -10.2% annual earnings decline despite 26% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$173.06
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$107.45
24.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OLLI is currently trading at $81.06, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.10 to $92.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.3) compared to its historical average (23.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $73.31, while resistance sits at $84.92. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.40 (+76.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $73.31, while resistance sits at $84.92. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.40 (+76.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$80.10 -
$92.55
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 76.3% below Wall St target ($138.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.10 -
$92.55
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.32
Resistance Level
$84.92
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.32
Wall Street Target
$138.40
(+76.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.6%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 23.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.64
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$63.58
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$57.22
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→24)
$78.98
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.8%)
$155.40
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 15.8%)
$121.92
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 15.8%)
$103.63
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89
Bull Case
$100.71
(+28%)
Analyst growth 16.5%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$91.55
(+17%)
Market implied 16.5%, PE stable at 20.2
Bear Case
$53.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.3 to 23.9
Stabilization Target:
$108.33
(+38.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OLLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John W Swygert
SELL
3330 shares
2026-04-07
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SELL
5231 shares
2026-03-31
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SELL
3898 shares
2026-03-27
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