OLLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OLLI - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$74.21
-1.30 (-1.72%)
▼
5d:
+3.92%
30d:
-6.36%
90d:
-18.67%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OLLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OLLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$162.92
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$101.16
26.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OLLI is currently trading at $74.21, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.98 to $81.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.4) compared to its historical average (22.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.20 (+62.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.20 (+62.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$73.98 -
$81.59
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 62.0% below Wall St target ($120.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$73.98 -
$81.59
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.61
Resistance Level
$84.94
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.37
Wall Street Target
$120.20
(+62.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 22.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.79
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$60.11
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$54.10
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→23)
$74.35
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.8%)
$153.35
(+107%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 15.8%)
$115.27
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 15.8%)
$97.98
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.04
Bull Case
$93.19
(+26%)
Analyst growth 12.2%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$84.72
(+14%)
Market implied 12.2%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$51.35
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.4 to 22.5
Stabilization Target:
$101.99
(+37.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 10:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OLLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
3330 shares
2026-04-07
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SELL
5231 shares
2026-03-31
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SELL
3898 shares
2026-03-27
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