ON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ON - ON Semiconductor Corp
$91.22
-3.41 (-3.60%)
▼
5d:
-23.18%
30d:
-29.09%
90d:
+46.66%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ON is down 23.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ON is down 23.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$174.72
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.49
15.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ON is currently trading at $91.22, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.17 to $128.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.1) is in line with its historical norms (20.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $86.47, while resistance sits at $132.42. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.12 (+24.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $86.47, while resistance sits at $132.42. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.12 (+24.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$103.17 -
$128.76
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
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Holding ON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 24.0% below Wall St target ($113.12)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with 4.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -23.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$103.17 -
$128.76
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.47
Resistance Level
$132.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.15
Wall Street Target
$113.12
(+24.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.7%
Profit Margin
9.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 20.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.77
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$92.32
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$92.87
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$91.35
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 39.2%)
$253.20
(+178%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.1, Growth: 39.2%)
$245.84
(+170%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.0, Growth: 39.2%)
$208.96
(+129%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 30.49 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.99
Bull Case
$110.15
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 32.0
Base Case
$91.22
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 30.5
Bear Case
$69.78
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 27.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 10:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Trent Thad
SELL
30000 shares
2026-04-16
Sudhir Gopalswamy
SELL
6114 shares
2026-03-13
Hassane El-Khoury
SELL
20000 shares
2026-02-12
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