ONEW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ONEW - OneWater Marine Inc. Class A Common Stock
$10.57
-0.65 (-5.79%)
▼
5d:
-12.35%
30d:
+8.52%
90d:
-11.77%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ONEW is down 12.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ONEW is down 12.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.82
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.93
18.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONEW is currently trading at $10.57, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.93 to $11.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONEW is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.64, while resistance sits at $12.50. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ONEW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.50 (+27.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONEW is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.64, while resistance sits at $12.50. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ONEW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.50 (+27.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.93 -
$11.31
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 27.7% below Wall St target ($13.50)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.93 -
$11.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.64
Resistance Level
$12.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.38
Wall Street Target
$13.50
(+27.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.3%
Profit Margin
-6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.54
(0%)
2-Year Target
$10.51
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$10.48
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$10.60
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 105.0%)
$75.85
(+618%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 105.0%)
$35.67
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 105.0%)
$30.32
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$10.69
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 4:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONEW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John Troiano
SELL
1662 shares
2026-02-12
Philip Austin Jr. Single…
BUY
18008 shares
2026-02-12
Philip Austin Jr. Single…
BUY
6345 shares
2026-02-11
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