ORI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORI - Old Republic International Corporation
$39.32
0.17 (0.43%)
▲
5d:
+0.15%
30d:
-5.44%
90d:
-7.63%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ORI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ORI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.38
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORI is currently trading at $39.32, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.15 to $41.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ORI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ORI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$39.15 -
$41.60
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($42.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.15 -
$41.60
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.31
Resistance Level
$39.81
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.80
Wall Street Target
$42.00
(+6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.7%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.12
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$38.93
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$38.73
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$39.40
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.7%)
$94.47
(+140%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 8.7%)
$50.49
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 8.7%)
$42.92
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.06
Bull Case
$35.36
(-10%)
Analyst growth -17.9%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$32.14
(-18%)
Market implied -17.9%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$26.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$40.00
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 3:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Eric Smith
BUY
1135 shares
2026-03-02
Carolyn Monroe
SELL
5526 shares
2026-02-02
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