ORLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
$98.41
-0.44 (-0.45%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ORLY is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ORLY is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$119.73
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.34
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORLY is currently trading at $98.41, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $91.13 to $98.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.9) is in line with its historical norms (28.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $92.73, while resistance sits at $102.11.
Market Sentiment: ORLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $92.73, while resistance sits at $102.11.
Market Sentiment: ORLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$91.13 -
$98.18
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ORLY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($108.72)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$91.13 -
$98.18
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.74
Resistance Level
$102.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.86
Wall Street Target
$108.72
(+10.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
29.9 vs 28.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$100.14
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$101.44
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$102.76
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$98.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.9, Growth: 11.4%)
$136.61
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.4%)
$102.01
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 11.4%)
$86.71
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.88
Bull Case
$127.20
(+29%)
Analyst growth 14.9%, PE expands to 38.4
Base Case
$115.64
(+17%)
Market implied 14.9%, PE stable at 34.9
Bear Case
$68.42
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Carl David Wilbanks
SELL
88485 shares
2025-08-13
Maria Sastre
SELL
595 shares
2025-08-13
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