ORLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
$90.11
-2.16 (-2.34%)
▼
5d:
+3.22%
30d:
-1.34%
90d:
-2.5%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
Smart Money Accumulation
ORLY is down 7.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $95 2026-04-17 with 3,463 OI. Call ratio: 76% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$128.60
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.85
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORLY is currently trading at $90.11, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.69 to $94.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.1) is in line with its historical norms (27.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $86.77, while resistance sits at $92.98.
Market Sentiment: ORLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.72 (+17.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $86.77, while resistance sits at $92.98.
Market Sentiment: ORLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.72 (+17.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$89.69 -
$94.63
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($105.72)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$89.69 -
$94.63
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.77
Resistance Level
$92.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.11
Wall Street Target
$105.72
(+17.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.1 vs 27.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$87.41
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$84.78
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$82.24
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→28)
$90.05
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.1, Growth: 11.0%)
$123.14
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.0%)
$109.83
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 11.0%)
$93.35
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.97
Bull Case
$116.01
(+31%)
Analyst growth 20.8%, PE expands to 32.3
Base Case
$105.46
(+19%)
Market implied 20.8%, PE stable at 29.4
Bear Case
$59.36
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.1 to 27.5
Stabilization Target:
$98.67
(+9.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 7:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-02-05
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BUY
2026-01-29
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ORLY price and gamma walls.
