PAM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAM - PAMPA ENERGIA S.A.
$80.25
0.30 (0.38%)
▲
5d:
-2.73%
30d:
-2.24%
90d:
-1.7%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PAM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PAM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$185.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$115.04
30.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAM is currently trading at $80.25, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.05 to $85.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.4) compared to its historical average (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.77 (+43.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.77 (+43.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$80.05 -
$85.49
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.0% below Wall St target ($114.77)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.05 -
$85.49
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.01
Resistance Level
$83.49
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.41
Wall Street Target
$114.77
(+43.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
38.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.5%
Profit Margin
20.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 7.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.76
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$71.51
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$67.51
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$80.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 31.1%)
$621.38
(+674%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 31.1%)
$180.74
(+125%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 31.1%)
$153.63
(+91%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.25
Bull Case
$134.01
(+67%)
Analyst growth 51.7%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$121.83
(+52%)
Market implied 51.7%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$54.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$95.14
(+18.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Marcos Marcelo Mindlin
SELL
1500000 shares
2026-04-22
Marcos Marcelo Mindlin
SELL
1250000 shares
2026-04-20
Marcos Marcelo Mindlin
SELL
1675000 shares
2026-04-16
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