PAYX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYX - Paychex Inc
$94.25
2.71 (2.96%)
▲
5d:
+0.39%
30d:
+2.49%
90d:
+1.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 24, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
PAYX is down 5.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $100 2026-06-18 with 3,744 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAYX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAYX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$134.63
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$83.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYX is currently trading at $94.25, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.41 to $93.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.5) compared to its historical average (17.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $95.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $100.93 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $95.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $100.93 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$89.41 -
$93.72
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($100.93)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$89.41 -
$93.72
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$87.43
Resistance Level
$95.20
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.51
Wall Street Target
$100.93
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
26.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 17.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.34
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$85.24
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$82.26
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$91.73
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 7.4%)
$161.17
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 7.4%)
$113.30
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 7.4%)
$96.31
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.53
Bull Case
$127.27
(+39%)
Analyst growth 30.2%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$115.70
(+26%)
Market implied 30.2%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case
$60.40
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 17.3
Stabilization Target:
$102.07
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 1:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rick Larsen
SELL
2026-04-07
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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Advanced PAYX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYX price and gamma walls.
