PAYX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYX - Paychex Inc
$106.35
3.64 (3.54%)
▲
5d:
+9.96%
30d:
+5.52%
90d:
+16.98%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 24, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAYX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAYX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$132.66
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYX is currently trading at $106.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.47 to $101.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.0) is in line with its historical norms (17.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: PAYX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: PAYX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$96.47 -
$101.66
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($106.57)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.47 -
$101.66
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$93.63
Resistance Level
$102.92
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.04
Wall Street Target
$106.57
(+0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.6%
Profit Margin
26.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 17.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.16
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$110.00
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$111.87
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$106.04
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.3%)
$158.47
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 7.3%)
$131.25
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 7.3%)
$111.57
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.89
Bull Case
$136.21
(+28%)
Analyst growth 20.6%, PE expands to 23.1
Base Case
$123.83
(+16%)
Market implied 20.6%, PE stable at 21.0
Bear Case
$69.84
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 11:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rick Larsen
SELL
2026-04-07
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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