PBF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBF - PBF ENERGY INC.
$42.37
0.07 (0.17%)
▲
5d:
-0.35%
30d:
+14.02%
90d:
+24.76%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PBF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PBF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.95
Based on -17.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBF is currently trading at $42.37, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.52 to $43.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.3) compared to its historical average (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.76, while resistance sits at $46.46.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.76, while resistance sits at $46.46.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$39.52 -
$43.32
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.52 -
$43.32
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.76
Resistance Level
$46.46
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.35
Wall Street Target
$43.17
(+2.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-69.9%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 14.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.85
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$37.54
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$35.36
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$42.38
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -38.7%)
$55.12
(+30%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: -38.7%)
$30.84
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: -38.7%)
$26.21
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.79
Bull Case
$40.42
(-4%)
Analyst growth -9.6%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$36.75
(-13%)
Market implied -9.6%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$27.64
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$50.70
(+19.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 3:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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