PEGA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PEGA - Pegasystems Inc
$31.05
-0.04 (-0.14%)
▼
5d:
+8.1%
30d:
-15.2%
90d:
-26.59%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PEGA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -14.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PEGA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -14.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.33
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.53
31.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PEGA is currently trading at $31.05, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.23 to $35.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (16.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEGA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PEGA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.18 (+87.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEGA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PEGA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.18 (+87.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$30.23 -
$35.09
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 87.4% below Wall St target ($58.18)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.23 -
$35.09
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.22
Resistance Level
$38.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.21
Wall Street Target
$58.18
(+87.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.6%
Profit Margin
20.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 16.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.94
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$25.15
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$22.63
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→16)
$36.36
(+17%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.1%)
$93.22
(+200%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 12.1%)
$43.69
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 12.1%)
$37.14
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.85
Bull Case
$56.22
(+81%)
Analyst growth 64.4%, PE expands to 18.5
Base Case
$51.11
(+65%)
Market implied 64.4%, PE stable at 16.8
Bear Case
$21.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 16.4
Stabilization Target:
$49.88
(+60.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+60.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PEGA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
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2026-03-17
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