PEGA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PEGA - Pegasystems Inc
$33.39
0.67 (2.05%)
▲
5d:
-9.09%
30d:
-21.89%
90d:
-17.74%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
PEGA is down 9.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $40 2026-06-18 with 681 OI. Call ratio: 69% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PEGA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PEGA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.93
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.25
33.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PEGA is currently trading at $33.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.99 to $41.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.0) compared to its historical average (18.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEGA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $32.23, while resistance sits at $38.21.
Market Sentiment: PEGA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.18 (+74.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEGA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $32.23, while resistance sits at $38.21.
Market Sentiment: PEGA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.18 (+74.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$34.99 -
$41.51
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PEGA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 74.2% below Wall St target ($58.18)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.99 -
$41.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.23
Resistance Level
$38.21
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.98
Wall Street Target
$58.18
(+74.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.6%
Profit Margin
20.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 18.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.05
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$27.05
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$24.34
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→18)
$40.13
(+20%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 12.1%)
$94.34
(+183%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 12.1%)
$46.99
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 12.1%)
$39.94
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.85
Bull Case
$59.17
(+77%)
Analyst growth 64.4%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case
$53.79
(+61%)
Market implied 64.4%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$22.25
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 18.1
Stabilization Target:
$55.05
(+64.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+64.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PEGA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Efstathios A Kouninis
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-17
Rifat Kerim Akgonul
SELL
7594 shares
2026-03-16
Kenneth Stillwell
SELL
44000 shares
2026-03-10
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Advanced PEGA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PEGA price and gamma walls.
