POOL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
POOL - Pool Corporation
$187.77
-2.67 (-1.40%)
▼
5d:
-9.77%
30d:
-12.06%
90d:
-29.45%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
POOL is up 7.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $180 2026-07-17 with 472 OI. Put ratio: 78% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: POOL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: POOL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$321.44
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$199.59
5.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: POOL is currently trading at $187.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $199.53 to $226.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.6) compared to its historical average (19.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, POOL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $184.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $262.73 (+39.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, POOL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $184.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $262.73 (+39.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$199.53 -
$226.83
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding POOL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.9% below Wall St target ($262.73)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.8% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$199.53 -
$226.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.50
Resistance Level
$232.01
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.61
Wall Street Target
$262.73
(+39.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.1%
Profit Margin
7.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 19.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$173.69
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$160.66
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$148.61
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→20)
$187.55
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 8.6%)
$338.42
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 8.6%)
$240.78
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 8.6%)
$204.67
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.87
Bull Case
$231.81
(+24%)
Analyst growth 10.7%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$210.74
(+12%)
Market implied 10.7%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$129.50
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 19.7
Stabilization Target:
$236.97
(+26.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 09, 2026 6:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is POOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
De La Mesa Manuel J Perez
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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Advanced POOL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's POOL price and gamma walls.
