QFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
QFIN - Qfin Holdings, Inc. American Depositary Shares
$12.79
-0.31 (-2.37%)
▼
5d:
-2.74%
30d:
-7.85%
90d:
-17.75%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 18, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: QFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: QFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.50
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.21
15.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: QFIN is currently trading at $12.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.96 to $13.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.4) is in line with its historical norms (0.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: QFIN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.20 (+81.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: QFIN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.20 (+81.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.96 -
$13.83
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 81.4% below Wall St target ($23.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.96 -
$13.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.74
Resistance Level
$14.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.37
Wall Street Target
$23.20
(+81.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-41.0%
Profit Margin
31.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.61
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$12.43
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$12.26
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→0)
$13.30
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 20.4%)
$1335.25
(+10340%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 20.4%)
$22.32
(+75%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: 20.4%)
$18.97
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (2x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 2.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.48
Bull Case
$28.82
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 2.2
Base Case
$26.20
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 2.0
Bear Case
$8.91
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 1.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.4
Stabilization Target:
$13.87
(+8.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is QFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Xiaohuan Chen
BUY
190000 shares
2026-03-27
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