QFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
QFIN - Qfin Holdings, Inc. American Depositary Shares
$15.46
-0.91 (-5.56%)
▼
5d:
+3.0%
30d:
-6.64%
90d:
+19.11%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: QFIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: QFIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.37
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: QFIN is currently trading at $15.46, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.47 to $16.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 0.5) compared to its historical average (0.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.88, while resistance sits at $17.25. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: QFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.83 (+41.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.88, while resistance sits at $17.25. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: QFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.83 (+41.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.47 -
$16.08
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 41.2% below Wall St target ($21.83)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.4% growth with -16.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.47 -
$16.08
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.88
Resistance Level
$17.25
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.47
Wall Street Target
$21.83
(+41.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.3%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
0.5 vs 0.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.29
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$17.17
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$18.10
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→0)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.43
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.1%)
$1010.72
(+6438%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.5, Growth: 12.1%)
$21.78
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.4, Growth: 12.1%)
$18.51
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (3x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 2.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.67
Bull Case
$36.01
(+133%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 3.2
Base Case
$32.74
(+112%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 2.9
Bear Case
$11.13
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 05, 2026 4:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is QFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Xiaohuan Chen
BUY
190000 shares
2026-03-27
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