RGLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RGLD - Royal Gold Inc
$228.32
-12.25 (-5.09%)
▼
5d:
-4.43%
30d:
-12.9%
90d:
-20.2%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
RGLD is down 6.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $250 2026-06-18 with 339 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RGLD appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 92% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RGLD appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 92% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$459.61
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$285.38
20.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RGLD is currently trading at $228.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $234.69 to $263.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.8) compared to its historical average (19.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 91.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGLD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $225.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $336.17 (+47.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGLD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $225.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $336.17 (+47.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$234.69 -
$263.70
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 47.2% below Wall St target ($336.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$234.69 -
$263.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$12.99
(5.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$225.61
Resistance Level
$248.35
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.82
Wall Street Target
$336.17
(+47.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
143.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
91.9%
Profit Margin
48.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 19.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$217.13
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$206.49
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$196.37
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$227.71
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 19.6%)
$513.23
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 19.6%)
$391.07
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 19.6%)
$332.41
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.28
Bull Case
$433.91
(+90%)
Analyst growth 64.0%, PE expands to 32.0
Base Case
$394.47
(+73%)
Market implied 64.0%, PE stable at 29.1
Bear Case
$163.59
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 19.5
Stabilization Target:
$264.75
(+16.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 6:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RGLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark Isto
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-12
Daniel Breeze
SELL
1400 shares
2026-03-02
William M Hayes
SELL
4173 shares
2026-02-20
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Advanced RGLD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RGLD price and gamma walls.
