RGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RGR - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.
$39.47
-0.40 (-1.00%)
▼
5d:
+1.1%
30d:
-5.98%
90d:
+5.31%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
RGR is down 3.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $40 2026-07-17 with 171 OI. Call ratio: 93% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RGR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RGR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.43
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RGR is currently trading at $39.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.73 to $42.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.9) is in line with its historical norms (18.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.29, while resistance sits at $43.89.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.00 (+19.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.29, while resistance sits at $43.89.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.00 (+19.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.73 -
$42.81
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($47.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.6% growth with 4.1% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.73 -
$42.81
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.92
(4.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.29
Resistance Level
$43.89
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.93
Wall Street Target
$47.00
(+19.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.3%
Profit Margin
-2.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 18.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.50
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$41.55
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$42.63
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.56
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 16.5%)
$69.04
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.5%)
$62.36
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 16.5%)
$53.01
(+34%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 12:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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