RLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RLI - RLI Corp.
$62.52
1.86 (3.07%)
▲
5d:
+13.4%
30d:
+22.68%
90d:
+9.8%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: RLI is 9.6% above its trading range ($57.05). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: RLI is 9.6% above its trading range ($57.05). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.23
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RLI is currently trading at $62.52, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.75 to $57.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.5) compared to its historical average (20.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: RLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: RLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$50.75 -
$57.05
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.6% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($57.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.8% growth with 4.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.75 -
$57.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.89
Resistance Level
$53.42
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.51
Wall Street Target
$57.75
(-7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.2%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
22.5 vs 20.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.90
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$67.36
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$69.92
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$62.43
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.5, Growth: 1.7%)
$65.81
(+5%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 1.7%)
$63.67
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 1.7%)
$54.12
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.29
Bull Case
$43.19
(-31%)
Analyst growth -35.3%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$39.27
(-37%)
Market implied -35.3%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$41.25
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 8:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Craig W Kliethermes
BUY
5000 shares
2026-01-23
Jennifer L Klobnak
BUY
2000 shares
2026-01-23
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