RLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RLI - RLI Corp.
$50.82
0.94 (1.88%)
▲
5d:
+3.61%
30d:
-13.85%
90d:
-17.53%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.71
Based on 2.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RLI is currently trading at $50.82, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.84 to $57.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (20.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.75 (+13.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.75 (+13.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$49.84 -
$57.96
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($57.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.84 -
$57.96
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.26
Resistance Level
$52.21
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.35
Wall Street Target
$57.75
(+13.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.2%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 20.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.04
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$47.32
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$45.67
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$50.78
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 1.5%)
$63.86
(+26%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 1.5%)
$53.09
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 1.5%)
$45.12
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.29
Bull Case
$35.43
(-30%)
Analyst growth -35.4%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$32.21
(-37%)
Market implied -35.4%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$33.92
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 20.4
Stabilization Target:
$56.51
(+11.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 3:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Craig W Kliethermes
BUY
5000 shares
2026-01-23
Jennifer L Klobnak
BUY
2000 shares
2026-01-23
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