SBH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SBH - Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
$14.14
-0.08 (-0.56%)
▼
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
+12.76%
90d:
-0.14%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SBH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SBH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.80
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBH is currently trading at $14.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.50 to $13.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SBH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.40 (+16.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SBH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.40 (+16.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.50 -
$13.86
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($16.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.50 -
$13.86
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.75
Resistance Level
$13.44
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.31
Wall Street Target
$16.40
(+16.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 6.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.98
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$13.83
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$13.68
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$14.08
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.7%)
$62.73
(+344%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 8.7%)
$18.18
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 8.7%)
$15.45
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.81
Bull Case
$19.36
(+37%)
Analyst growth 23.8%, PE expands to 8.6
Base Case
$17.60
(+25%)
Market implied 23.8%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$9.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 6.5
Stabilization Target:
$14.56
(+3.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:04 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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