SF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SF - Stifel Financial Corp.
$73.17
1.32 (1.84%)
▲
5d:
+2.38%
30d:
+5.46%
90d:
-1.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SF shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SF shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.27
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SF is currently trading at $73.17, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.68 to $73.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 469.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.75 (+18.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.75 (+18.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$69.68 -
$73.03
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($86.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.68 -
$73.03
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.96
Resistance Level
$72.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.42
Wall Street Target
$86.75
(+18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
469.2%
Profit Margin
15.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.41
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$69.70
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$68.03
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$73.12
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.2%)
$210.20
(+187%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 11.2%)
$100.57
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 11.2%)
$85.48
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.13
Bull Case
$108.18
(+48%)
Analyst growth 36.9%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$98.35
(+34%)
Market implied 36.9%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$48.86
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$78.64
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 2:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Rubulotta
SELL
600 shares
2026-02-02
James M Zemlyak
SELL
13 shares
2026-01-29
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