SHOO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOO - Steven Madden Ltd
$33.73
-0.33 (-0.97%)
▼
5d:
+1.6%
30d:
-6.62%
90d:
-19.0%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SHOO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SHOO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.31
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.35
35.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOO is currently trading at $33.73, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.60 to $37.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (16.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SHOO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.56 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SHOO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.56 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$32.60 -
$37.32
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($43.56)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.60 -
$37.32
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.40
Resistance Level
$34.60
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.98
Wall Street Target
$43.56
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-31.7%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 16.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.44
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$29.02
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$26.78
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→17)
$34.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 25.3%)
$115.48
(+239%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 25.3%)
$67.07
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 25.3%)
$57.01
(+67%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 15.02 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.24
Bull Case
$40.62
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.8
Base Case
$33.64
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$25.73
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 16.5
Stabilization Target:
$43.29
(+27.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 12:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:43 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Arian Simone Reed
SELL
3600 shares
2026-03-12
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