SIGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIGI - Selective Insurance Group
$88.20
2.25 (2.62%)
▲
5d:
+4.03%
30d:
+9.33%
90d:
+2.06%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SIGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SIGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$127.74
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIGI is currently trading at $88.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.20 to $85.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SIGI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SIGI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$80.20 -
$85.19
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($90.14)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.0% growth with 5.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.20 -
$85.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.87
Resistance Level
$87.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.96
Wall Street Target
$90.14
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.2%
Profit Margin
8.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$89.08
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$89.97
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$90.87
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$88.51
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.6%)
$278.81
(+216%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 12.6%)
$125.81
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 12.6%)
$106.94
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.31
Bull Case
$113.51
(+32%)
Analyst growth 21.2%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$103.19
(+20%)
Market implied 21.2%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$57.92
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 5:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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