SMP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMP - Standard Motor Products
$35.42
-0.40 (-1.10%)
▼
5d:
-0.83%
30d:
-10.75%
90d:
-5.48%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.5% annual earnings decline despite 46% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.5% annual earnings decline despite 46% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.08
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.79
11.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMP is currently trading at $35.41, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.03 to $41.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.3) compared to its historical average (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 46.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $34.27, while resistance sits at $37.21.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.67 (+35.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $34.27, while resistance sits at $37.21.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.67 (+35.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$35.03 -
$41.16
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
4th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 4th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.9% below Wall St target ($48.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$35.03 -
$41.16
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.53
(4.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.27
Resistance Level
$37.21
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.28
Wall Street Target
$48.67
(+35.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.1%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 8.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.48
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$31.31
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$29.27
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$35.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.9%)
$154.43
(+331%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 11.9%)
$50.18
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 11.9%)
$42.65
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.52
Bull Case
$53.35
(+49%)
Analyst growth 39.8%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$48.50
(+36%)
Market implied 39.8%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$23.60
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$43.79
(+22.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
9093 shares
2025-12-11
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SELL
1148 shares
2025-11-11
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1180 shares
2025-11-11
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