SNCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SNCY - Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$18.04
0.50 (2.85%)
▲
5d:
+5.37%
30d:
+25.36%
90d:
+60.07%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SNCY trades at premium valuation expecting 5.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: SNCY trades at premium valuation expecting 5.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.64
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.40
2.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SNCY is currently trading at $18.04, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.13 to $17.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SNCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SNCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$15.13 -
$17.78
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($19.43)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.9% growth with 2.4% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$15.13 -
$17.78
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.93
Resistance Level
$18.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.26
Wall Street Target
$19.43
(+7.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.8%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 9.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.10
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$20.23
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$21.43
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.07
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 49.7%)
$119.96
(+565%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 49.7%)
$60.58
(+236%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 49.7%)
$51.11
(+183%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.02
Bull Case
$30.30
(+68%)
Analyst growth 57.1%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$27.55
(+53%)
Market implied 57.1%, PE stable at 17.2
Bear Case
$11.93
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 03, 2026 1:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SNCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erin Rose Neale
SELL
279 shares
2025-10-02
William Trousdale
SELL
228 shares
2025-10-02
John Gyurci
SELL
224 shares
2025-10-02
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