SPSC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPSC - SPS Commerce, Inc.
$51.17
1.21 (2.42%)
▲
5d:
-9.39%
30d:
-9.51%
90d:
-17.36%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SPSC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SPSC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.09
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.36
25.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPSC is currently trading at $51.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.24 to $57.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (14.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $49.04, while resistance sits at $59.83.
Market Sentiment: SPSC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.09 (+33.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $49.04, while resistance sits at $59.83.
Market Sentiment: SPSC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.09 (+33.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$52.24 -
$57.61
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.1% below Wall St target ($68.09)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.4%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$52.24 -
$57.61
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.04
Resistance Level
$59.83
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.79
Wall Street Target
$68.09
(+33.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Profit Margin
11.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 14.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.05
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$41.45
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$37.30
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→15)
$56.75
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.4%)
$154.95
(+203%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 10.4%)
$68.76
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 10.4%)
$58.45
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.41
Bull Case
$109.91
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$99.92
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.7
Bear Case
$33.97
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 14.9
Stabilization Target:
$77.85
(+52.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+52.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Marty M Reaume
SELL
1000 shares
2026-04-07
Jamie Thingelstad
SELL
2418 shares
2026-02-24
Chadwick Collins
SELL
13384 shares
2026-02-20
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