SWBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWBI - Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Common Stock
$15.34
0.19 (1.25%)
▲
5d:
+5.5%
30d:
+3.37%
90d:
+30.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 17, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SWBI trades at premium valuation expecting 6.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: SWBI trades at premium valuation expecting 6.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.80
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWBI is currently trading at $15.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.59 to $15.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 46.5) compared to its historical average (38.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.59 -
$15.23
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.4% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.59 -
$15.23
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.10
Resistance Level
$15.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
46.48
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(-2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
67.6%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.4% premium
PE vs Historical
46.5 vs 38.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.32
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$17.37
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$18.48
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 46→39)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.34
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 46.5, Growth: 17.9%)
$25.11
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 17.9%)
$11.92
(-22%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 17.9%)
$10.13
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 11.78 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.30
Bull Case
$18.52
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$15.34
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$11.74
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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