SWBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWBI - Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Common Stock
$14.95
-0.05 (-0.33%)
▼
5d:
-4.72%
30d:
-2.35%
90d:
+1.22%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 17, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SWBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SWBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.80
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWBI is currently trading at $14.95, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.44 to $15.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 45.3) compared to its historical average (40.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SWBI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.25 (+15.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SWBI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.25 (+15.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.44 -
$15.78
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
23th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SWBI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 23th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.44 -
$15.78
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.79
(5.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.53
Resistance Level
$15.66
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
45.30
Wall Street Target
$17.25
(+15.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.7%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
45.3 vs 40.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.56
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$16.20
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$16.87
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 45→40)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.97
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 45.3, Growth: 17.9%)
$24.47
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.9%)
$11.77
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.9%)
$10.00
(-33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 36.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.41
Bull Case
$13.28
(-11%)
Analyst growth -19.5%, PE expands to 40.2
Base Case
$12.07
(-19%)
Market implied -19.5%, PE stable at 36.6
Bear Case
$10.20
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SWBI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SWBI price and gamma walls.
