SWIM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWIM - Latham Group, Inc. Common Stock
$5.37
0.20 (3.87%)
▲
5d:
-6.45%
30d:
-18.64%
90d:
-13.94%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SWIM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SWIM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.23
34.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWIM is currently trading at $5.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.61 to $6.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.7) compared to its historical average (32.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWIM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.16, while resistance sits at $6.06. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: SWIM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.82 (+64.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWIM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.16, while resistance sits at $6.06. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: SWIM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.82 (+64.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$5.61 -
$6.73
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 64.3% below Wall St target ($8.82)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.4% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.61 -
$6.73
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.57
(10.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.16
Resistance Level
$6.06
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.72
Wall Street Target
$8.82
(+64.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.2%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.7 vs 32.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.83
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$4.35
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.91
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→33)
$6.53
(+22%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 43.9%)
$18.14
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 43.9%)
$16.01
(+198%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 43.9%)
$13.61
(+153%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (62x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 61.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.09
Bull Case
$12.21
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 67.8
Base Case
$11.10
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 61.7
Bear Case
$3.77
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 52.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.7 to 32.9
Stabilization Target:
$8.96
(+66.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+66.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 9:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWIM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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