THG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
THG - The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
$195.13
-0.45 (-0.23%)
▼
5d:
+0.25%
30d:
+7.29%
90d:
+12.2%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: THG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: THG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$184.01
Based on -0.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$114.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: THG is currently trading at $195.13, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $180.21 to $192.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $199.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: THG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $199.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: THG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$180.21 -
$192.59
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($203.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$180.21 -
$192.59
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.78
Resistance Level
$199.59
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.50
Wall Street Target
$203.50
(+4.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.6%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$197.67
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$200.24
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$202.84
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$195.12
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -4.7%)
$408.10
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: -4.7%)
$194.85
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: -4.7%)
$165.63
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.81
Bull Case
$201.83
(+3%)
Analyst growth -6.2%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$183.49
(-6%)
Market implied -6.2%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$132.99
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 25, 2026 7:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is THG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Jane D Carlin
SELL
1200 shares
2026-02-27
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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