THRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
THRM - Gentherm Inc
$27.76
-0.50 (-1.77%)
▼
5d:
-4.7%
30d:
-9.69%
90d:
-23.67%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: THRM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: THRM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.87
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.66
30.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: THRM is currently trading at $27.76, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.53 to $31.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.3) compared to its historical average (12.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THRM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.00 (+48.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THRM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.00 (+48.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$27.53 -
$31.57
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.6% below Wall St target ($42.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$27.53 -
$31.57
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.00
Resistance Level
$29.37
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.29
Wall Street Target
$42.00
(+48.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.2%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 12.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.77
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$23.51
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$21.44
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$28.39
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 18.8%)
$113.91
(+303%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 18.8%)
$47.33
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 18.8%)
$40.23
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.59
Bull Case
$60.57
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 51.3
Base Case
$55.06
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.7
Bear Case
$18.72
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 12.3
Stabilization Target:
$37.43
(+32.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is THRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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