TPB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPB - Turning Point Brands, Inc.
$77.42
-2.46 (-3.08%)
▼
5d:
+9.68%
30d:
-9.31%
90d:
-36.47%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
6d
Smart Money Accumulation
TPB is down 5.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $95 2026-07-17 with 183 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
Get Alerted When TPB Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$191.44
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.87
34.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPB is currently trading at $77.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.76 to $88.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.4) compared to its historical average (24.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 194.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $68.08, while resistance sits at $84.94. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.25 (+69.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $68.08, while resistance sits at $84.94. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.25 (+69.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$75.76 -
$88.35
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 69.5% below Wall St target ($131.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.76 -
$88.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.08
Resistance Level
$84.94
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.45
Wall Street Target
$131.25
(+69.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
194.5%
Profit Margin
12.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 24.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.54
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$66.10
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$61.08
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→25)
$77.55
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 26.8%)
$167.04
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 26.8%)
$157.66
(+104%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 26.8%)
$134.01
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.11
Bull Case
$112.45
(+45%)
Analyst growth 28.0%, PE expands to 28.3
Base Case
$102.23
(+32%)
Market implied 28.0%, PE stable at 25.7
Bear Case
$54.32
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.5 to 24.7
Stabilization Target:
$98.31
(+27.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 1:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:15 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew Flynn
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-04
David Edward Glazek
SELL
30000 shares
2025-12-19
H.C. Charles Diao
SELL
2000 shares
2025-12-15
Top Rated Tobacco Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Tobacco by analyst ratings.
Advanced TPB Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TPB price and gamma walls.
