TPG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPG - TPG Inc. Class A Common Stock
$42.24
0.45 (1.08%)
▲
5d:
-3.1%
30d:
-6.09%
90d:
-9.94%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
TPG is down 5.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $45 2026-06-18 with 175 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 12.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 12.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.31
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.70
43.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPG is currently trading at $42.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.39 to $45.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.4) compared to its historical average (16.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.33 (+34.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.33 (+34.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$40.39 -
$45.16
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.8% below Wall St target ($56.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.39 -
$45.16
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.83
Resistance Level
$46.89
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.36
Wall Street Target
$56.33
(+34.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-56.8%
Profit Margin
4.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 16.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.61
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$33.85
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$30.46
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→17)
$45.04
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 27.4%)
$167.63
(+301%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 27.4%)
$86.32
(+107%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 27.4%)
$73.37
(+76%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 15.55 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.69
Bull Case
$50.46
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 16.3
Base Case
$41.79
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$31.97
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 16.8
Stabilization Target:
$61.78
(+47.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+47.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TPG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TPG price and gamma walls.
