TRAK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRAK - ReposiTrak, Inc.
$9.77
0.21 (2.20%)
▲
5d:
+12.95%
30d:
-6.6%
90d:
+30.27%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TRAK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TRAK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.15
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.03
2.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRAK is currently trading at $9.77, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.15 to $10.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.7) is in line with its historical norms (23.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRAK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $9.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+63.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRAK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $9.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+63.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.15 -
$10.22
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
42th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 42th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 63.8% below Wall St target ($16.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.15 -
$10.22
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.40
(14.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.85
Resistance Level
$10.68
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.72
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(+63.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Profit Margin
31.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.7 vs 23.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.68
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$9.59
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$9.51
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→23)
$9.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.7, Growth: 16.2%)
$15.34
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.2%)
$14.70
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 16.2%)
$12.50
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$12.22
(+25%)
Analyst growth 16.2%, PE expands to 28.4
Base Case
$11.11
(+14%)
Market implied 16.2%, PE stable at 25.8
Bear Case
$6.50
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.7 to 23.3
Stabilization Target:
$10.02
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRAK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Randall K Fields
SELL
7500 shares
2026-03-23
Randall K Fields
SELL
1428 shares
2026-03-17
Randall K Fields
SELL
6072 shares
2026-03-16
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