TREX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREX - Trex Company, Inc.
$35.56
-1.01 (-2.76%)
▼
5d:
-3.05%
30d:
-11.56%
90d:
+1.37%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TREX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TREX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.23
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.02
6.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $35.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.13 to $40.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.4) compared to its historical average (23.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.95 (+37.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.95 (+37.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$36.13 -
$40.05
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.7% below Wall St target ($48.95)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$36.13 -
$40.05
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.11
Resistance Level
$37.89
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.37
Wall Street Target
$48.95
(+37.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-89.4%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.4 vs 23.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.57
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$31.69
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$29.91
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→23)
$35.52
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 11.5%)
$52.27
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.4, Growth: 11.5%)
$49.23
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 11.5%)
$41.84
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.78
Bull Case
$40.83
(+11%)
Analyst growth 3.1%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$37.12
(+1%)
Market implied 3.1%, PE stable at 20.2
Bear Case
$24.47
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.4 to 23.0
Stabilization Target:
$42.22
(+18.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 11:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Prithvi Gandhi
BUY
15000 shares
2025-11-14
Jacob T Rudolph
BUY
59 shares
2025-10-10
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