TREX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREX - Trex Company, Inc.
$41.42
-0.36 (-0.86%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 23, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TREX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TREX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.03
Based on -3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.89
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $41.42, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.32 to $42.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.6) compared to its historical average (23.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$36.32 -
$42.92
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($44.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$36.32 -
$42.92
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.56
Resistance Level
$45.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.55
Wall Street Target
$44.00
(+5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.7%
Profit Margin
16.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
25.6 vs 23.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.16
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$44.58
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$46.05
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.83
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.5, Growth: -10.4%)
$30.46
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -10.4%)
$26.59
(-36%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -10.4%)
$22.60
(-46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 22.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.84
Bull Case
$41.04
(-1%)
Analyst growth -11.1%, PE expands to 25.1
Base Case
$37.31
(-10%)
Market implied -11.1%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$28.54
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jacob T Rudolph
BUY
59 shares
2025-10-10
Amy M Fernandez
SELL
1538 shares
2025-08-06
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