TREX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREX - Trex Company, Inc.
$35.70
-0.87 (-2.38%)
▼
5d:
-2.67%
30d:
-11.22%
90d:
+1.77%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TREX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TREX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.23
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.02
6.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREX is currently trading at $35.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.16 to $40.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.9) compared to its historical average (23.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.95 (+33.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.95 (+33.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$36.16 -
$40.04
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.9% below Wall St target ($48.95)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$36.16 -
$40.04
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.11
Resistance Level
$37.89
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.92
Wall Street Target
$48.95
(+33.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-89.4%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 23.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.85
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$33.21
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$31.65
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→23)
$36.54
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.5%)
$56.80
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.5%)
$50.63
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 11.5%)
$43.03
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.78
Bull Case
$40.83
(+11%)
Analyst growth 3.1%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$37.12
(+1%)
Market implied 3.1%, PE stable at 20.2
Bear Case
$24.47
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.9 to 23.0
Stabilization Target:
$42.22
(+15.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 3:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Prithvi Gandhi
BUY
15000 shares
2025-11-14
Jacob T Rudolph
BUY
59 shares
2025-10-10
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