TRUP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRUP - Trupanion, Inc.
$22.36
-0.23 (-1.02%)
▼
5d:
-12.62%
30d:
-17.79%
90d:
-30.43%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TRUP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TRUP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.59
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.68
19.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRUP is currently trading at $22.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.11 to $27.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.2) compared to its historical average (7.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 235.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRUP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TRUP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.75 (+77.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRUP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TRUP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.75 (+77.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.11 -
$27.33
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 77.8% below Wall St target ($39.75)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-12.6%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.11 -
$27.33
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.54
Resistance Level
$27.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.19
Wall Street Target
$39.75
(+77.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
235.1%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.2 vs 7.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.12
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$18.11
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$16.30
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$23.25
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 9.9%)
$126.26
(+465%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.2, Growth: 9.9%)
$29.72
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.4, Growth: 9.9%)
$25.26
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.59
Bull Case
$50.64
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.9
Base Case
$46.04
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.0
Bear Case
$15.65
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.2 to 7.4
Stabilization Target:
$31.89
(+42.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRUP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John R Gallagher
SELL
430 shares
2026-03-30
Emily Dreyer
SELL
7792 shares
2026-03-04
Fawwad Qureshi
SELL
2837 shares
2026-02-27
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