TT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TT - Trane Technologies plc

AUTO CONTROLS FOR REGULATING RESIDENTIAL & COMML ENVIRONMENTS
$420.58
-5.49 (-1.29%) ▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
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Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026 0d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$637.17
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$395.63
Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TT is currently trading at $420.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $381.37 to $402.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.0) is in line with its historical norms (26.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $429.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: TT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $482.37 (+14.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Fair Price Range $381.37 - $402.02
Company Quality Score 62/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 59.5%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($482.37)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $381.37 - $402.02
Current vs Fair Value EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $383.04
Resistance Level $429.87
Current Trend Downtrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 25.04
Wall Street Target $482.37 (+14.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -3.0%
Profit Margin 13.7%
Valuation Discount vs History -2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical 25.0 vs 26.6 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -2.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $412.17 (-2%)
2-Year Target $403.93 (-4%)
3-Year Target $395.85 (-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 25→27) $420.50 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 25.0, Growth: 13.5%) $615.19 (+46%)
Base: (SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.5%) $547.86 (+30%)
Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: 13.5%) $465.68 (+11%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.09
Bull Case $490.09 (+17%)
Analyst growth 13.0%, PE expands to 33.1
Base Case $445.54 (+6%)
Market implied 13.0%, PE stable at 30.1
Bear Case $268.06 (-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.0 to 26.6
Stabilization Target: $446.77 (+6.2%)
PE Expansion Potential: +6.2%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 7:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:38 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle SELL 2025-09-23
David S Regnery SELL 22497 shares 2025-09-02

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Advanced TT Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TT price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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