TW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TW - Tradeweb Markets Inc. Class A Common Stock
$102.79
1.30 (1.28%)
▲
5d:
+12.34%
30d:
+4.91%
90d:
-13.3%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TW appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.7% annual earnings decline despite 39% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TW appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.7% annual earnings decline despite 39% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$173.45
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$107.70
4.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TW is currently trading at $102.79, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.35 to $102.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.3) compared to its historical average (25.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $104.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.64 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $104.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.64 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$96.35 -
$102.09
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.0% below Wall St target ($134.64)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.35 -
$102.09
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.25
Resistance Level
$104.29
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.33
Wall Street Target
$134.64
(+31.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.1%
Profit Margin
40.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 25.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.96
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$93.35
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$88.97
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→26)
$102.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.2%)
$149.18
(+45%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.2%)
$145.50
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 13.2%)
$123.67
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.05
Bull Case
$129.43
(+26%)
Analyst growth 13.7%, PE expands to 28.1
Base Case
$117.66
(+15%)
Market implied 13.7%, PE stable at 25.6
Bear Case
$70.40
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 25.8
Stabilization Target:
$118.76
(+15.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 2:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Justin Peterson
SELL
21221 shares
2026-04-15
Justin Peterson
SELL
3212 shares
2026-03-18
William Hult
SELL
72450 shares
2026-03-03
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