TW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TW - Tradeweb Markets Inc. Class A Common Stock
$109.78
-0.09 (-0.08%)
▼
5d:
-0.61%
30d:
-9.05%
90d:
-5.37%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.12
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TW is currently trading at $109.78, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $110.10 to $121.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.0) compared to its historical average (26.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.91, while resistance sits at $114.38.
Market Sentiment: TW has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $136.79 (+24.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.91, while resistance sits at $114.38.
Market Sentiment: TW has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $136.79 (+24.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$110.10 -
$121.13
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.6% below Wall St target ($136.79)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$110.10 -
$121.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.91
Resistance Level
$114.38
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.01
Wall Street Target
$136.79
(+24.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.1%
Profit Margin
40.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.0 vs 26.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$105.72
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$101.81
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$98.04
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→27)
$109.84
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.0, Growth: 12.9%)
$158.03
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 12.9%)
$145.06
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 12.9%)
$123.30
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.05
Bull Case
$137.19
(+25%)
Analyst growth 12.9%, PE expands to 30.0
Base Case
$124.72
(+14%)
Market implied 12.9%, PE stable at 27.3
Bear Case
$75.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.0 to 26.9
Stabilization Target:
$122.99
(+12.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Justin Peterson
SELL
21221 shares
2026-04-15
Justin Peterson
SELL
3212 shares
2026-03-18
William Hult
SELL
72450 shares
2026-03-03
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