TXN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated
$287.80
2.56 (0.90%)
▲
5d:
+2.41%
30d:
+33.87%
90d:
+29.97%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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1 traders called TXN this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TXN is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TXN is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$352.65
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$218.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXN is currently trading at $287.80, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $205.27 to $275.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 32.5) compared to its historical average (28.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $292.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TXN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $292.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TXN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$205.27 -
$275.21
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
TXN is technically overbought (RSI 76). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($279.06)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$205.27 -
$275.21
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$264.24
Resistance Level
$292.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.45
Wall Street Target
$279.06
(-3.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.3%
Profit Margin
29.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.5% premium
PE vs Historical
32.5 vs 28.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$300.75
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$314.28
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$328.43
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$288.47
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.4, Growth: 15.6%)
$444.41
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 15.6%)
$300.50
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 15.6%)
$255.42
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.85
Bull Case
$475.73
(+65%)
Analyst growth 51.6%, PE expands to 53.6
Base Case
$432.48
(+50%)
Market implied 51.6%, PE stable at 48.8
Bear Case
$193.96
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 10, 2026 1:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-18
Hagop H Kozanian
SELL
6843 shares
2026-02-17
Ahmad Bahai
SELL
6500 shares
2026-02-11
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