TXN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated
$302.73
-5.44 (-1.77%)
▼
5d:
+5.19%
30d:
+35.69%
90d:
+33.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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3 traders called TXN this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TXN trades at premium valuation expecting 5.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: TXN trades at premium valuation expecting 5.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$355.86
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$220.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXN is currently trading at $302.73, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $221.54 to $292.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 34.0) compared to its historical average (28.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $310.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TXN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $310.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TXN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$221.54 -
$292.16
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.8%
Protect Your Profits
TXN is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($280.62)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.9% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$221.54 -
$292.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$275.58
Resistance Level
$310.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.05
Wall Street Target
$280.63
(-7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.3%
Profit Margin
29.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.9% premium
PE vs Historical
34.1 vs 28.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$320.59
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$339.51
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$359.54
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$303.06
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.0, Growth: 15.9%)
$470.84
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.9%)
$305.19
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 15.9%)
$259.41
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 37.88 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.99
Bull Case
$365.55
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 39.8
Base Case
$302.73
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 37.9
Bear Case
$231.59
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 34.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-18
Hagop H Kozanian
SELL
6843 shares
2026-02-17
Ahmad Bahai
SELL
6500 shares
2026-02-11
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Advanced TXN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXN price and gamma walls.
