TXT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXT - Textron, Inc.
$88.77
-2.77 (-3.03%)
▼
5d:
-2.46%
30d:
-1.66%
90d:
-9.5%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
TXT is down 3.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $95 2026-06-18 with 872 OI. Call ratio: 92% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TXT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TXT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$137.39
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXT is currently trading at $88.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.08 to $92.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXT is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $89.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $103.45 (+16.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXT is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $89.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $103.45 (+16.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$89.08 -
$92.79
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($103.45)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$89.08 -
$92.79
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$89.16
Resistance Level
$95.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.16
Wall Street Target
$103.45
(+16.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$87.35
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$85.95
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$84.58
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$89.04
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.1%)
$227.24
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 12.1%)
$125.19
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 12.1%)
$106.41
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.24
Bull Case
$140.30
(+58%)
Analyst growth 39.3%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$127.54
(+44%)
Market implied 39.3%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$62.25
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.2 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$93.45
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 6:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
E Robert Lupone
SELL
28056 shares
2026-02-17
Mark S Bamford
SELL
19808 shares
2026-02-17
Julie G Duffy
SELL
19857 shares
2026-02-13
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXT price and gamma walls.
