UFCS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFCS - United Fire Group Inc.
$41.54
1.07 (2.64%)
▲
5d:
+5.27%
30d:
+13.78%
90d:
+19.33%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UFCS is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UFCS is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.83
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFCS is currently trading at $41.54, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.33 to $40.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.1) compared to its historical average (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UFCS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UFCS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$37.33 -
$40.06
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.33 -
$40.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.72
Resistance Level
$41.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.14
Wall Street Target
$40.50
(-2.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.0%
Profit Margin
8.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.91
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$44.33
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$45.79
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.53
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 4.0%)
$86.59
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 4.0%)
$46.79
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 4.0%)
$39.77
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.48
Bull Case
$37.06
(-11%)
Analyst growth -16.7%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$33.69
(-19%)
Market implied -16.7%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$27.52
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 3:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UFCS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-04
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
Dee Ann Mcintyre
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
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