UGP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
$5.73
-0.19 (-3.21%)
▼
5d:
-6.22%
30d:
-4.98%
90d:
+11.7%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UGP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UGP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.22
Based on -1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGP is currently trading at $5.73, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.77 to $6.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.7) compared to its historical average (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 167.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.37 (+11.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.37 (+11.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.77 -
$6.03
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($6.37)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.77 -
$6.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.62
Resistance Level
$6.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.65
Wall Street Target
$6.37
(+11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
167.4%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 11.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.43
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$5.15
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$4.88
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$5.72
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -6.9%)
$10.59
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: -6.9%)
$4.63
(-19%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: -6.9%)
$3.93
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.58
Bull Case
$6.40
(+12%)
Analyst growth 2.4%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$5.82
(+2%)
Market implied 2.4%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$3.86
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$6.71
(+17.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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