UGP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
$5.07
0.10 (2.01%)
▲
5d:
+4.32%
30d:
-0.78%
90d:
-9.79%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UGP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.8% annual earnings decline despite 167% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UGP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.8% annual earnings decline despite 167% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.94
Based on -0.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGP is currently trading at $5.07, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.77 to $5.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (10.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 167.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.72, while resistance sits at $5.63.
Market Sentiment: UGP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.36 (+25.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.72, while resistance sits at $5.63.
Market Sentiment: UGP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.36 (+25.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.77 -
$5.17
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.4% below Wall St target ($6.36)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.77 -
$5.17
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.72
Resistance Level
$5.64
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.86
Wall Street Target
$6.36
(+25.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
167.4%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 10.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.78
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$4.50
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$4.24
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$5.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -4.7%)
$10.78
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: -4.7%)
$4.39
(-13%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: -4.7%)
$3.73
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.55
Bull Case
$5.69
(+12%)
Analyst growth 4.0%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$5.17
(+2%)
Market implied 4.0%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$3.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 10.6
Stabilization Target:
$6.06
(+19.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 2:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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