Is UPST stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, UPST is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: UPST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of UPST stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for UPST to be between $30.62 and $33.92. The current price is $34.78.

What is the analyst price target for UPST?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for UPST is $40.13. This implies a potential upside of 15.4% from current levels.

UPST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

UPST - Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock

FINANCE SERVICES

$34.78

-0.96 (-2.69%) ▼

5d: +5.49%

30d: +7.38%

90d: +37.15%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your UPST Gains

Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 04, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

None View Scanner →

Strength: 9.0/10

Get Alerted When UPST Hits Your Target Price

Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move

You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.

100% Free No spam, ever Unsubscribe anytime

Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

Loading historical data...

💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UPST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$82.21

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$51.05

31.9% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: UPST is currently trading at $34.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.62 to $33.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.1) compared to its historical average (12.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 209.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.04, while resistance sits at $36.90.

Market Sentiment: UPST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.13 (+15.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $30.62 - $33.92

Company Quality Score 60/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 59.5%

Protect Your Profits

Holding UPST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($40.13)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $30.62 - $33.92

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $30.04

Resistance Level $36.90

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Jul 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.13

Wall Street Target $40.13 (+15.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 44.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 209.1%

Profit Margin 4.2%

Valuation Discount vs History -6.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 10.1 vs 12.3 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -6.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $32.62 (-6%)

2-Year Target $30.60 (-12%)

3-Year Target $28.70 (-18%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→12) $34.84 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.8, Growth: 44.8%) $227.15 (+553%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 44.8%) $105.68 (+204%)

Bear: (PE: 8.6, Growth: 44.8%) $89.83 (+158%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 38.91 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.89

Bull Case $42.00 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 40.9

Base Case $34.78 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 38.9

Bear Case $26.61 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 35.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 12.3

Stabilization Target: $42.22 (+21.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +21.4%

Share & Embed Analysis

Found this analysis useful? Share it with your community or embed the live chart on your blog.

Tweet Reddit

bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.

Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 PM

🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now

Ticker	Score	Recommendation	Change %

See Full Scanner Results »

Technical Signals Check

Is UPST showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Natalia Mirgorodskaya SELL 866 shares 2026-02-25

Natalia Mirgorodskaya SELL 633 shares 2026-02-20

Sanjay Datta SELL 7982 shares 2026-02-20

View Insider Activity Scanner

Unlock Insider Activity

See real-time buying/selling by company executives for UPST.

Create Free Account

Already have an account? Log In

Top Rated Credit Services Stocks

Top-rated stocks in Credit Services by analyst ratings.

Stock	Analyst Consensus	Analyst Target	Tradestie Score
V Visa Inc. Class A	STRONG BUY 41 analysts	$399	58 HOLD
MA Mastercard Inc	STRONG BUY 42 analysts	$645	61 BUY
COF Capital One Financial Co…	STRONG BUY 23 analysts	$255	65 BUY
PYPL PayPal Holdings Inc	HOLD 47 analysts	$52	56 HOLD
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc	STRONG BUY 24 analysts	$84	60 HOLD

COF Capital One Finan…

65 BUY

PYPL PayPal Holdings I…

56 HOLD

AFRM Affirm Holdings I…

60 HOLD

Advanced UPST Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UPST price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for UPST

UPST Technical Chart UPST Price Prediction UPST Earnings Date UPST Investment Advisor UPST Fair Price Analyzer UPST Options Advisor UPST Options Chain UPST Options Analysis UPST Competitors

Compare UPST with Peers

UPST vs AFRM
Which one to buy?

UPST vs SOFI
Which one to buy?

UPST vs U
Which one to buy?

UPST vs TTD
Which one to buy?

UPST vs CVNA
Which one to buy?

ALLY vs UPST
Winner: ALLY

HPQ vs UPST

UPST vs VEL
Winner: VEL

PSTV vs UPST

HCTI vs UPST

Create New Comparison View All Competitors

Tradestie