UPST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPST - Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock
$29.00
0.30 (1.05%)
▲
5d:
-8.17%
30d:
+6.19%
90d:
-16.17%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
3d
Smart Money Accumulation
UPST is down 4.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $40 2026-06-18 with 3,370 OI. Call ratio: 68% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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2 traders called UPST this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UPST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UPST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.96
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.51
43.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPST is currently trading at $29.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.96 to $33.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.1) compared to its historical average (13.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 209.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.84, while resistance sits at $34.06.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.27 (+49.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.84, while resistance sits at $34.06.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.27 (+49.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$26.96 -
$33.44
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.2% below Wall St target ($43.27)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.96 -
$33.44
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.84
Resistance Level
$34.06
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.12
Wall Street Target
$43.27
(+49.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
209.1%
Profit Margin
4.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 13.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.10
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$23.49
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$21.14
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→13)
$31.06
(+7%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 53.5%)
$235.41
(+712%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 53.5%)
$97.88
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 53.5%)
$83.19
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 33.44 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.87
Bull Case
$35.02
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 35.1
Base Case
$29.00
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.4
Bear Case
$22.18
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 30.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 13.4
Stabilization Target:
$42.60
(+46.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+46.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 08, 2026 8:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
866 shares
2026-02-25
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SELL
633 shares
2026-02-20
Sanjay Datta
SELL
7982 shares
2026-02-20
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Advanced UPST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UPST price and gamma walls.
