Is UPWK stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, UPWK is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: UPWK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of UPWK stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for UPWK to be between $9.30 and $11.30. The current price is $8.17.

What is the analyst price target for UPWK?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for UPWK is $12.94. This implies a potential upside of 58.4% from current levels.

UPWK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

UPWK - Upwork Inc. Common Stock

SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION

$8.17

0.09 (1.11%) ▲

5d: -7.37%

30d: -26.13%

90d: -38.22%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your UPWK Gains

Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 07, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

UPWK is down 8.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $15 2026-07-17 with 1,121 OI. Call ratio: 68% View Scanner →

Strength: 6.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UPWK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 13.1%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$25.36

Based on 8.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$15.75

48.1% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: UPWK is currently trading at $8.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.30 to $11.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.7) compared to its historical average (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 21.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, UPWK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.44, while resistance sits at $10.74.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.94 (+58.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $9.30 - $11.30

Company Quality Score 53/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 58.4% below Wall St target ($12.94)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.4% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $9.30 - $11.30

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $7.44

Resistance Level $10.74

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of May 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 4.70

Wall Street Target $12.94 (+58.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 1.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -12.0%

Profit Margin 13.8%

Valuation Discount vs History -21.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 4.7 vs 9.7 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -21.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $7.35 (-10%)

2-Year Target $6.62 (-19%)

3-Year Target $5.96 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 5→10) $12.30 (+51%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.1, Growth: 13.1%) $55.48 (+579%)

Base: (SPY PE: 4.7, Growth: 13.1%) $11.81 (+45%)

Bear: (PE: 4.0, Growth: 13.1%) $10.04 (+23%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 10.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.81

Bull Case $18.46 (+126%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.4

Base Case $16.78 (+105%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.4

Bear Case $5.71 (-30%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.7 to 9.7

Stabilization Target: $16.87 (+106.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +106.4%

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Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Dave Bottoms SELL 7000 shares 2026-03-19

Sabrina Mekhalfa SELL 1482 shares 2026-03-18

Hayden Brown SELL 23745 shares 2026-03-18

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Advanced UPWK Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UPWK price and gamma walls.

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