UVE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVE - UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG, INC.
$38.75
-0.28 (-0.72%)
▼
5d:
-1.75%
30d:
+11.19%
90d:
+24.32%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
0d
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1 traders called UVE this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UVE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UVE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.60
Based on -1.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVE is currently trading at $38.75, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.90 to $39.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 30.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.00 (+13.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.00 (+13.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$34.90 -
$39.97
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($44.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.90 -
$39.97
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.69
Resistance Level
$41.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.81
Wall Street Target
$44.00
(+13.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.6%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.32
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$37.90
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$37.49
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$38.73
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -7.4%)
$77.18
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: -7.4%)
$30.80
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: -7.4%)
$26.18
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.74
Bull Case
$28.03
(-28%)
Analyst growth -34.7%, PE expands to 6.4
Base Case
$25.48
(-34%)
Market implied -34.7%, PE stable at 5.8
Bear Case
$26.54
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$40.04
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kimberly D Campos
SELL
879 shares
2026-03-26
Sean P Downes
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-25
Richard D Peterson
SELL
1855 shares
2025-12-30
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