UVE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVE - UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG, INC.
$43.01
0.77 (1.82%)
▲
5d:
+8.97%
30d:
+18.58%
90d:
+32.58%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UVE is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UVE is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.19
Based on -1.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVE is currently trading at $43.01, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.46 to $40.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$36.46 -
$40.49
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($44.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.46 -
$40.49
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.39
Resistance Level
$39.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.77
Wall Street Target
$44.00
(+2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.6%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.13
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$45.28
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$46.45
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$42.77
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -7.4%)
$76.17
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: -7.4%)
$34.19
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: -7.4%)
$29.06
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.76
Bull Case
$30.24
(-30%)
Analyst growth -34.9%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$27.49
(-36%)
Market implied -34.9%, PE stable at 6.3
Bear Case
$28.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 8:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kimberly D Campos
SELL
879 shares
2026-03-26
Sean P Downes
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-25
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