VTEX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VTEX - VTEX
$3.45
0.03 (0.88%)
▲
5d:
-13.1%
30d:
-14.6%
90d:
+11.29%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VTEX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VTEX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.51
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.28
34.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VTEX is currently trading at $3.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.77 to $4.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 390.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VTEX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.01 (+74.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VTEX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.01 (+74.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.77 -
$4.16
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 74.2% below Wall St target ($6.01)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-13.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.77 -
$4.16
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.39
Resistance Level
$4.21
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.71
Wall Street Target
$6.01
(+74.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
390.5%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.19
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$2.95
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$2.72
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$3.45
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 36.0%)
$15.04
(+336%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 36.0%)
$8.67
(+151%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 36.0%)
$7.37
(+114%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.13
Bull Case
$7.62
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.3
Base Case
$6.93
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.7
Bear Case
$2.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$4.37
(+26.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VTEX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carmo Thomaz Junior Gera…
SELL
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2026-04-20
De Faria Mariano Gomide
SELL
4808 shares
2026-04-20
Andre Spolidoro Ferreira…
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-16
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