VTEX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VTEX - VTEX
$4.14
-0.04 (-0.96%)
▼
5d:
+12.5%
30d:
+6.98%
90d:
+2.48%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VTEX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VTEX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.34
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.18
20.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VTEX is currently trading at $4.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.52 to $3.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.9) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 390.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VTEX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.01 (+45.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VTEX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.01 (+45.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$3.52 -
$3.90
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.2% below Wall St target ($6.01)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.52 -
$3.90
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.50
Resistance Level
$4.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.89
Wall Street Target
$6.01
(+45.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
390.5%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.09
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$4.04
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$3.99
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$4.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 41.3%)
$17.07
(+312%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: 41.3%)
$11.67
(+182%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 41.3%)
$9.92
(+140%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.13
Bull Case
$9.20
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 35.4
Base Case
$8.36
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.2
Bear Case
$2.84
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.9 to 15.4
Stabilization Target:
$4.28
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VTEX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carmo Thomaz Junior Gera…
SELL
4808 shares
2026-04-20
De Faria Mariano Gomide
SELL
4808 shares
2026-04-20
Andre Spolidoro Ferreira…
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-16
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