VVV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VVV - Valvoline Inc.
$39.08
0.93 (2.44%)
▲
5d:
-1.61%
30d:
+15.14%
90d:
+14.64%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VVV is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: VVV is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.16
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VVV is currently trading at $39.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.87 to $39.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.9) compared to its historical average (17.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$34.87 -
$39.03
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VVV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($42.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.87 -
$39.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.97
Resistance Level
$37.43
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.94
Wall Street Target
$42.20
(+8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.5%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 17.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.45
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$41.86
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$43.33
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.12
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.0%)
$73.85
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 18.0%)
$64.21
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 18.0%)
$54.58
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 17.27 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.26
Bull Case
$47.19
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$39.08
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$29.90
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 10:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VVV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie Marie O'daniel
SELL
4312 shares
2026-02-20
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