VVV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VVV - Valvoline Inc.
$32.38
0.29 (0.90%)
▲
5d:
-9.73%
30d:
-2.15%
90d:
-14.07%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
VVV is up 8.2% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $35 2026-06-18 with 4 OI. Put ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.1/10
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3 traders called VVV this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VVV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VVV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.49
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.31
10.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VVV is currently trading at $32.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.42 to $34.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.7) is in line with its historical norms (16.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VVV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.67 (+31.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VVV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.67 (+31.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$32.42 -
$34.48
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VVV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.8% below Wall St target ($42.67)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.7%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.42 -
$34.48
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.58
Resistance Level
$37.12
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.69
Wall Street Target
$42.67
(+31.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.5%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 16.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.57
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$30.78
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$30.01
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$32.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 18.0%)
$74.79
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 18.0%)
$53.23
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 18.0%)
$45.25
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.75
Bull Case
$71.09
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.4
Base Case
$64.63
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.1
Bear Case
$21.97
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.7 to 16.9
Stabilization Target:
$34.88
(+7.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VVV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie Marie O'daniel
SELL
4312 shares
2026-02-20
Julie Marie O'daniel
SELL
3200 shares
2025-11-26
Lori Ann Flees
BUY
4500 shares
2025-11-24
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Advanced VVV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VVV price and gamma walls.
