WMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMG - Warner Music Group Corp. Class A Common Stock
$32.81
0.12 (0.37%)
▲
5d:
+5.7%
30d:
+12.94%
90d:
+14.92%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: WMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: WMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.56
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMG is currently trading at $32.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.59 to $31.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.9) is in line with its historical norms (16.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 393.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.12 (+16.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.12 (+16.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$27.59 -
$31.43
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($38.12)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.59 -
$31.43
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.47
Resistance Level
$33.62
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.86
Wall Street Target
$38.12
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
393.1%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 16.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.74
(0%)
2-Year Target
$32.68
(0%)
3-Year Target
$32.61
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$32.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 6.6%)
$51.91
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 6.6%)
$39.72
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 6.6%)
$33.76
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case
$71.92
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.8
Base Case
$65.38
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.9
Bear Case
$22.23
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 16.9
Stabilization Target:
$32.88
(+0.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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