YPF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YPF - YPF Sociedad Anonima
$45.58
1.92 (4.40%)
▲
5d:
+1.45%
30d:
+12.29%
90d:
+23.16%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: YPF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: YPF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.84
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.13
24.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YPF is currently trading at $45.58, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.14 to $44.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.7) compared to its historical average (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YPF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.14 (+28.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YPF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.14 (+28.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$42.14 -
$44.36
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.6% below Wall St target ($56.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.14 -
$44.36
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.63
Resistance Level
$45.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.73
Wall Street Target
$56.14
(+28.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-86.0%
Profit Margin
-1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 8.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.74
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$39.90
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$38.15
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$43.45
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 40.1%)
$342.66
(+685%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 40.1%)
$119.95
(+175%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 40.1%)
$101.96
(+134%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$49.73
(+13.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YPF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mauricio Alejandro Martin
SELL
3430 shares
2026-03-25
Marcelo Gustavo Aldeco
SELL
12719 shares
2026-03-19
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